Our PMA strategists published Part 2 of their Capital Market Assumptions update, focusing on Direct Lending. They project gross annualized returns of 7.7% unlevered and 10.7% levered for Global Middle Market Direct Lending, and 6.5%…
In our Beta report, we focus on our decade view. Many of our global allocator clients are scrambling to incorporate geopolitics into their strategic asset allocation. For most, this means thinking about war… or about future end-…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.
Ongoing military tensions between Ukraine and Rusia and renewed US-EU trade friction reinforce tactical opportunities to add European exposure on dips. Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian air assets and the limited outcome of the…
European equities will face a clash of powerful forces this summer. Expect sharp swings and false breaks, creating an ideal terrain for nimble traders but a minefield for buy-and-hold investors seeking steady gains.Within this backdrop,…
The most recent Brazilian data surprised positively, but underlying economic troubles will spoil the party for the country’s financial markets. Wholesale inflation came in at -0.49% in May relative to last month, while the…
President Trump’s trade truces gave a respite to global markets, but a bigger risk lurks around the corner. Unsustainable public debt dynamics in the US demand higher bond yields, which can push the economy into trouble. The…
President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against…
Rising bond yields may present an even greater danger to the global economy than the trade war. With equity valuations no longer discounting much economic risk, investors should position themselves defensively.
The latest US durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures suggest that hard and soft data are converging, but stocks remain at risk. After months of rising prints, new orders for manufactured goods sank by 6.3% in April…