Highlights The ECB admits that its policy is considerably more accommodative than it would be absent the need to integrate the weaker euro area economies. But a strategy designed to integrate some is alienating others, both within…

Highlights There is more downside risk ahead as the geopolitical calendar is packed in May; Protectionism remains in play, but markets could also fall on Iran-U.S. tensions, military intervention in Syria, and Russia-West…

Highlights Q1 earnings season looks robust, but trade policy is an uncertainty. Sizeable shifts in equity technicals and sentiment since the start of the year; valuation still stretched. Global growth may have peaked but fiscal,…

Highlights R-star is higher in the U.S. than in most other large economies. This includes China, where an elevated savings rate has depressed the neutral rate of interest. Countries with relatively high neutral rates like the U.S.…

Highlights The U.S. and China have a roughly 60-day period to prevent the current trade "skirmish" from metastasizing into a full-blown trade war; The revised U.S.-Korea trade deal suggests that Trump's trade negotiators…

Highlights Recommended Allocation  Due to the boost from U.S. fiscal stimulus, we do not expect recession until 2020. Despite some signs that growth is peaking, global economic fundamentals remain robust. Markets have wobbled…

Highlights Global growth has peaked, but will remain firmly above trend for the remainder of the year. The composition of global growth is shifting back towards the U.S. As often happens in the late stages of business-cycle expansions…

Special Report

Highlights With North Korean diplomacy on track, Taiwan is the country most exposed to U.S.-China trade and strategic tensions. The Taiwanese public supports the status quo; however, a majority sees itself as exclusively Taiwanese,…

Dear Client, Yesterday, my colleagues Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, and I had a webcast to discuss the rising threats of trade wars between the U.S. and China. If you have not listened to it yet, I encourage you to listen to it here. Best…

Highlights There is growing evidence that China's industrial sector is slowing, as are Asian trade flows. EM stocks have seen their tops. Even though current trade tensions between the U.S. and China could well dissipate, we are at…