Dear Client, Following up on last week's report, my colleagues Caroline Miller, Mathieu Savary, and I held a webcast on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the dollar along with recent events. If you haven't already, I hope you…

My colleagues Caroline Miller, Peter Berezin and I broadcasted a webcast this past Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the dollar along with recent market-relevant fiscal and trade policy pronouncements. If you haven't already, I…

Highlights Global trade data we track as indicators of current and expected commodity demand - particularly EM import volumes - will provide a lift to oil prices over the course of 1H18. We continue to expect global oil demand growth,…

Highlights The direct impact of recently proposed U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum is likely to be small, both for China and the world. In isolation, this development is not very relevant for investment strategy. However, the…

Special Report

Highlights Trump faces few constraints to further protectionism. His tariff announcement confirms our constraints-based methodology. Previous examples of U.S. protectionism show that the end game was not trade war, but USD…

Highlights We re-examine our Yield and Protector portfolios to find out which assets will hold up best if there is a material correction. Our tactical view on gold is neutral, but the risk in gold prices will remain skewed to the…

Highlights China's new exchange rate regime has significantly weakened the link between the U.S. dollar and the broad RMB trend, at the expense of a stronger (negative) relationship between CNY/USD and the dollar. Our metrics to…

Highlights The U.S.'s twin deficits do not explain the drop in the USD; Global growth is the biggest factor for the USD, and growth depends on China's economic reforms; The U.S. is turning more hawkish on China trade despite…

Highlights A potential rise in U.S. inflation and China's growth slowdown represent formidable headwinds to EM risk assets. A manifestation of these tectonic macro shifts will be a U.S. dollar rally and weakening commodities…

Highlights U.S. equities 'melted up' in January as tax cuts made the robust growth/low inflation sweet spot even sweeter. Ominously, recent market action is beginning to resemble a classic late cycle blow-off phase. The…