April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade barriers will guide the next phase of…
Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-…
This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.
Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an…
In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
Despite our bearish predisposition towards stocks, we are open-minded to anything that could challenge our thesis. As such, in this report, we review five upside scenarios for equities.
The February US Producer Price Index came in below estimates, with the headline measure showing no monthly change and standing at 3.2% y/y. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) was also cooler than expected, coming…
The February US CPI came in cooler than expected. Headline inflation decelerated to 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y), as did core which now stands at 3.1% y/y. Core services inflation declined while core goods inflation was roughly unchanged.…