A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities.
Although there may be a method to DOGE’s 100-mile-an-hour madness, we think the worries and uncertainty stoked by it and on-again, off-again tariff measures have increased the probability of a recession while bringing forward its…
The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.
The February ISM Services beat estimates, rebounding to 53.5 from 52.8. All activity subcomponents increased, with new orders and employment ticking up. Price pressures however also increased, as prices paid went up and suppliers’…
China’s February Caixin PMIs showed growth remains tepid. The composite ticked up to 51.5 from 51.1. Services are still showing a very faint expansion at 51.4, with manufacturing ticking up to 50.8. The message from the official NBS…
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a slowing economy, a moderating labor market, and rising price pressures. The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing slower growth and decreased confidence…
Leading US growth indicators have slowed, with economic surprises now in negative territory. However, Monday’s ISM Manufacturing showed that while activity is slowing due to tariffs uncertainty, supply-side price pressures are…
The Trump administration launched its biggest trade action on Tuesday, levying 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, and an additional 10% to current tariffs on Chinese imports. Given its crucial role in US supply chains,…
Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy.