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Trade / BOP

Tariff Man Comes Out Swinging
Our Global Investment strategists offered their initial thoughts on the nascent US trade war with its allies, with a few longer-term takeaways. President Trump’s decision to delay Mexico tariffs on Monday highlights the uncertainty surrounding trade…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ECB: Steady As She Goes

The ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75%, as was widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde did not provide any fireworks, but the Governing Council’s message was clear: Policy is restrictive, and inflation will fall further. As a result, if we combine our economic forecasts for the Eurozone with Frankfurt’s data dependency, we continue to expect the ECB’s deposit rate to settle below 2%. Consequently, German bond yields have downside, and the euro has yet to bottomed.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
US GDP: Keep An Eye On Consumption
Advanced Q4 US GDP missed estimates, slowing down to 2.3% quarterly annualized growth from 3.1%. The weakness was however driven by inventories. Consumer spending beat estimates and accelerated to 4.2% from 3.7% in Q3. Growth is still above trend as the US…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Official PMIs Disappoint
China’s official January PMIs disappointed, with the composite ticking down to 50.1 from 52.2. The decrease was driven by both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing components, with the former indicating contraction, and the latter showing very low…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Sharing The Tariff Burden

We anticipate decisive tariff measures early in Trump’s second term. In this Special Report, we explore how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, U.S. importers, and consumers.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima, Qingyun Xu
Outside Of AI, Global Growth Keeps Slowing
East Asian trade data was mixed in December and January. Taiwanese export orders for December were stronger than expected, rebounding to 20.8% y/y from 3.3% in November. On the other hand, Korean exports for the first 20 days of January fell 5.1% y/y, after…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trump Day One: Threats And Opportunities For Europe

President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Trump’s Inauguration
US Tariffs Will Rise On Day One (Or Week One) …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Fade Strong Chinese Exports
China’s December trade data was positive, with exports in USD terms rebounding to 10.7% y/y from 6.7% in November, and imports rebounding to 1.0% from -3.9%. Taken at face value, the numbers are positive for both the Chinese and global economies. However, our…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Bond Market Riot Engulfs Europe

UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon? 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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