The Trump-Xi summit continued the trade truce and tentatively created a framework to contain tensions over 2026. That is not a trade deal but it is good enough for global financial markets, especially Chinese assets.
The US and China appear to be moving toward a trade deal, though it remains unclear whether the goal is simply damage control or a genuine expansion of market access. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on October 30 in…
Reduce risk exposure in the very near term as President Trump's ceasefire effort falters, Russia tensions spike, and US-China trade prospects suffer.
The US-EU trade deal lifts uncertainty but imposes high tariffs, weighing on the EUR and supporting our long USD positioning. The agreement includes a 15% tariff on all EU exports to the US, including cars and potentially,…
The Japan-US trade deal removes short-term uncertainty but leaves in place high tariffs. The deal imposes a 15% tariff on most Japanese exports, lower than the previously threatened 25% on autos, and includes Japanese commitments to…
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…
President Trump’s big beautiful bill will pass but faces near-term hurdles and will not tighten the government’s belt. It will combine with renewed tariff implementation to generate near-term risk for both the bond and stock market.…
Bond market volatility will spike again in the near term. The Fed is committed to an easing cycle yet the Trump administration’s signature fiscal policy action will stimulate the economy. Tariffs are supposed to keep the budget…