The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our…
Barring a dramatic further de-escalation of the trade war, the US and much of the rest of the world will enter a recession over the next few months. Investors should remain defensively positioned for now.
China’s aggressive retaliation against U.S. tariffs will enable President Trump to shift from punishing allies and redirect the trade war toward China. If Beijing does not react to the latest tariffs by doubling its fiscal stimulus,…
President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions…
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European…
Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.
Trump’s foreign policy has been the focus for investors over the past few months. But is it really the underlying cause of the selloff? Market dynamics suggests that tariffs have only been a catalyst. In our view, investors should…
Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an…