In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy.
Our Geopolitical strategists received a lot of client questions following rapid US political developments, and addressed them in their latest report. US policy uncertainty is spiking, driving global uncertainty higher. Tariff…
The tariffs on Canada and Mexico will come into effect as scheduled while the tariffs on China will be doubled. In the Middle East, Iranian response to any attack will threaten Middle Eastern oil supply. Meanwhile, Chinese fiscal…
Trump’s ceasefire talks are positive for Germany – and so was the German election result. But Trump’s tariffs will hit Germany soon. Investors should use near-term volatility to increase exposure to Germany.
Our Geopolitical Strategy team reviewed possible outcomes for Sunday's German election as the far-right is playing an expanding role in mainstream German politics. German voters have shifted to the right, weakening the ruling…
