Highlights Chart 1European Policy Uncertainty Down Macron remains on target to win the French election, but Italy looms as a risk ahead; Fade any relief rally after South Korean elections; Russia is not a major source of…
Highlights The sequential improvement in global trade is less pronounced than the annual growth rates in the Asian trade data imply. China has been instrumental to the recovery in global trade but mainland's credit and fiscal…
Highlights Trump's agenda has not derailed ... at least not yet; Europe remains a red herring ... as the Dutch showed; Turkey cannot restart Europe's immigration crisis; Supply-side reforms are still likely in France; The…
Highlights Mexico and China are not the only countries that could suffer from U.S. trade protectionism. Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand are also at risk. The global inflationary versus deflationary impact of U.S. trade…
Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…
The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…