Turkey's unorthodox macroeconomic policies have backfired. The pursuit of economic growth at all costs has created major macroeconomic imbalances including surging inflation, a large current account deficit, extreme reliance on…
Highlights President Trump has little to do with the ongoing EM selloff; The macro backdrop is the real culprit behind Turkey's woes, particularly the strong dollar... ... Which is a product of global policy divergence, with the…
This week we are publishing Part 1 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts presentation illustrates the business cycle conditions of the largest EMs. The aim of this report is to…
Dear Client, Geopolitical analysis is a fundamental part of the investment process. My colleague, and BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Marko Papic will introduce a one-day specialized course - Geopolitics & Investing - to…
Turkish bank stocks have now fallen by 40% in local currency terms and by 55% in U.S. dollar terms since their peak early this year (Chart II-1), prompting the question whether they have become a bargain or are still a value…
Highlights China's industrial sector will continue decelerating, while consumer spending is so far booming. The world economy in general and EM in particular are exposed much more to China's industrial sector than to its…
Highlights Divergence between U.S. and global economic outcomes is bullish for the U.S. dollar and bad for EM assets; Maximum Pressure worked with North Korea, but it may not with Iran, putting upside pressure on oil; An election is…
Highlights EM currencies are fairly valued at the moment - they are neither cheap nor expensive. Unit labor cost-based REER is a superior currency valuation measure to those based on consumer and producer prices. Based on this measure…
Feature Turkey's banking system has in recent years relied on enormous liquidity provisions by the central bank (Chart I-1) to sustain its ongoing credit boom, and hence economic growth. Since early this year, the authorities have…