Stay long September 2026 Euribor futures and overweight UK gilts, as Europe could see reflationary cuts while the UK slowdown argues for deeper easing. The ECB left rates unchanged at 2% in a routine meeting and revised its growth…
Stay overweight UK gilts as weakening labor data and cooling inflation give the BoE room to cut beyond what markets price. UK employment data continued to disappoint, with November payrolls falling 38k after a revised 22k decline in…
Maintain an underweight in industrial commodities as flash PMIs confirm weak global growth momentum. December flash PMIs for developed markets pointed to subdued activity. The US composite slowed to 53 from 54.2, a six-month low,…
Stay overweight UK gilts and short GBP versus EUR as weak UK data and a softening labor market point to a more dovish BoE. Monthly UK GDP missed estimates and contracted 0.1% m/m in October after a 0.1% decline in September. The…
Stay tactically long USD as UK macro weakness remains underpriced in GBP but fully reflected in equities. One of our key themes has been that UK macro disappointment is in the pipeline. Being long UK gilts is our Global Fixed Income…
Stay overweight UK gilts and short GBP versus EUR as the budget supports a dovish BoE path. The UK unveiled a widely anticipated budget lifting taxes by GBP26bn, and adding GBP11.3bn in spending. Overall fiscal headroom rises from…
November flash PMIs confirmed sluggish global momentum, reinforcing a defensive stance with tactical support for the USD. The US composite PMI rose to 54.8, driven by stronger services but weaker manufacturing. The Euro area showed a…
UK inflation data supports a December BoE cut, reinforcing the case for staying long gilts and short GBP versus EUR. October CPI inflation came broadly in line with expectations but showed broad deceleration. Headline CPI slowed to 3…
UK growth data weakened in September and Q3, reinforcing expectations of a more dovish BoE and bolstering the case for gilts. Monthly GDP contracted 0.1% m/m in September after a flat August, while preliminary Q3 growth slowed to 0.1…
UK labor data weakened further in October and September, reinforcing the case for continued BoE easing. Payrolls fell by 32k in October, matching a downwardly revised 32k decline in September. Unemployment rose to 5.0% from 4.8%,…