UK

In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy easing, our forward-looking indicators suggest monetary policy will continue to weigh on the economy.

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and suggests a few trade ideas.

The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?