Weaker-than-anticipated economic data caused a sharp decline in UK gilt yields over the past few days with the 10 year yield now at its lowest since May. The weakness in economic data was broad-based across various…
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in…
European flash PMI estimates for November sent a slightly less pessimistic signal on Thursday. The Eurozone composite PMI climbed by 0.6 points to 47.1, beating expectations of a more muted increase to 46.8. Notably, both the…
The UK economy stagnated in Q3 – a deterioration from the minor 0.2% q/q expansion in the prior quarter. Although the Q3 figure is slightly better than anticipations of a 0.1% q/q contraction, the details of the report are…
Labor markets are softening in most developed economies, as is usually the case in the lead-up to recessions. Our base case is that the global recession will begin in the second half of 2024, but we will be monitoring our MacroQuant…
The Eurozone’s inflation will continue to slow over the coming months. While this trend will help Bund prices, will it boost the appeal of European equities?
As expected, the Bank of England kept its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% at Thursday's MPC meeting with six members voting in favor of the decision and the remaining three preferring a 25bps rate increase. Governor Andrew…
The data releases this week in the UK were disappointing for those that have been looking for a major downshift in UK inflation – most importantly, the Bank of England (BoE). The CPI report for September came in above…