UK

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

An important annual event is when long-time client Mr. X visits BCA strategists at the end of each year to talk about the economic and financial outlook and a write-up of the discussion is published as our Annual Outlook report. Recently, BCA’s former Chief Economist Martin Barnes had the pleasure of a chance encounter with Mr. X at an airport lounge, and this report is an edited transcript of their conversation.

The UK economy is more resilient than was feared last year. While this will not help UK stocks, the Footsie’s long term prospects are appealing.

Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have less exposure to geopolitical risk. 

Our Central Bank Monitors support the recent shift in tone from central bankers in Europe. Find out what it means for European fixed-income portfolio allocation.