This week’s Global Investment Strategy report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.
Executive Summary For the first time in a decade, it is much less attractive to buy than to rent a home. In both the UK and US, the mortgage rate is now almost double the average rental yield. To reset the equilibrium between buying…
Sterling collapsed to an all-time low in intra-day trading on Monday. The weakness follows UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s Friday mini-budget announcement and weekend comments that more tax cuts are coming. The Bank of…
In its post-meeting statement on Thursday, the Bank of England highlighted that the MPC is prepared to “respond forcefully” to any changes to the inflationary outlook. On Friday, the new UK government unveiled a…
As expected, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50bps to 2.25% on Thursday. Three of the nine MPC members preferred a more aggressive 75bp hike, while one member favored a more modest 25bp increase. The BoE noted that…
Cable fell below 1.14 in intra-day trading on Friday (incidentally, the 30th anniversary of Black Wednesday). Though it recovered some of the losses, it ended the week at a 37-year low. New evidence that the UK economy is…
Executive Summary At the margin, the European Union’s proposed €140 billion “windfall profits” tax on electricity providers not using natural gas to generate power will blunt the message markets are sending to…
UK GDP grew by 0.2% m/m in July, up from June’s 0.6% m/m decline. A 0.4% m/m increase in services was the main contributor, though production and construction fell 0.3% and 0.8% m/m, respectively. However, July’s GDP…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…