UK Gilts have been selling off sharply since the beginning of August. The yield on the 10-year UK government bond is now over 80bps higher than it was at the start of the month. The move has been even more pronounced at the…
The July UK CPI data released on Wednesday showed an acceleration of year-over-year headline inflation into double-digit territory at 10.1%, up from 9.4% in June and beating market expectations. Higher food and energy prices were…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Chart 1The Dollar Has Broken Below The First Line Of Support The softer CPI print in the US boosted growth plays and pushed the DXY index below…
Executive Summary Oil Markets Remain Tight US and Iranian negotiators received an EU proposal for reviving the Iran nuclear deal on Monday, which could return ~ 1mm b/d of oil to markets. The EU’s embargo of…
Executive Summary Realized Real Interest Rates Must Rise Policymakers must continue engineering higher real interest rates, and tighter financial conditions, to help cool off growth and bring down overshooting inflation.…
The Bank of England hiked interest rates by 50bps on Thursday, lifting the bank rate to 1.75% with the majority (8-1) of the MPC voting in favor of the outsized increase. Revisions to the forecast indicate that the central bank…
UK headline CPI inflation reached a fresh four-decade high of 9.4% y/y in June, following 9.1% in May and slightly above the anticipated 9.3%. Gasoline and food continue to be the largest drivers of headline CPI. However, the…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…
Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom benchmark index by +24bps in Q2/2022, improving the year-to-date outperformance to a solid +72bps. The Q2 outperformance came entirely from the credit side…
Executive Summary Buying a home is now more expensive than renting in many parts of the world. In the US and UK, disappearing homebuyers combined with a flood of home-sellers will weigh on home prices over the next 6-12 months.…