Executive Summary Summarizing Our Main Investment Themes In One Chart Our current strategic recommendations are centered around four key themes: global inflation will slow over the rest of 2022, Europe remains too weak to…
The UK economy faces multiple headwinds this year from tighter monetary and fiscal policies amid surging inflation. CPI inflation soared to a fresh 30-year high of 7% in March and the Bank of England raised interest rates at all…
Executive Summary A Good Time For A Pause In The Bond Bear Market The global government bond selloff looks stretched from a technical perspective, and a consolidation phase is likely over the next few months as global…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary The Dollar Has Broken Above Overhead Resistance Most central banks continue to dial up their hawkish rhetoric, led by the Fed. This is putting upward pressure on the dollar (Feature Chart). The big…
Executive Summary Europe Is Russia's Key Gas Customer Full-on rationing of natural gas by Germany took a step closer to reality, as the standoff with Russia over its insistence on being paid in roubles for gas plays out.…
UK headline CPI inflation surged to a 30-year high of 6.2% y/y in February, beating estimates of 6.0%. Similarly, core CPI inflation jumped by 0.8 percentage points to 5.2% while the retail price index rose 8.2% y/y following 7.8…
We do not expect the relief measures announced in UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s spring statement to offset headwinds from rising taxes, higher energy prices, and higher interest rates (see The Numbers).…
Executive Summary Ebbing Stagflation Fear Will Prompt Rerating European inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. Core CPI will reach between 2.8% and 3.2% by year-end before receding. The combination of…
As expected, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.75% on Thursday. However, the central banks’ messaging signaled a somewhat cautious stance. The MPC stated that some further modest tightening in monetary…