Dear Client, Dhaval Joshi has started publishing the new BCA Research Counterpoint product, in which he will continue to apply his unique process to dig up original investment opportunities around the globe. I trust many of you will…
The Bank of England took a page from the Fed’s playbook at its Thursday meeting, acknowledging that economic conditions and the pandemic have improved since February’s central projections, but emphasizing its…
Highlights Global Duration: Markets are correctly interpreting the $1.9 trillion US fiscal stimulus package as a factor justifying higher global growth expectations and bond yields. Maintain a below-benchmark stance on overall global…
The UK’s RICS House Price Balance Indicator increased to 52% in February from a revised 49%, beating expectations it would dip to 45%. While the headline number remains below October’s 66%, it is nevertheless a strong…
Highlights Rising Global Yields: The increased turbulence in global bond markets is part of the adjustment process to a more positive outlook for global economic growth. Rising real yields are now the main driver of nominal yield…
Highlights Market-based geopolitical analysis is about identifying upside as well as downside risk. So far this year upside risks include vaccine efficacy, coordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus, China’s avoidance of over-…
Highlights For the month of February, our trading model recommends shorting the US dollar versus the euro and Swiss franc. While we agree a barbell strategy makes sense, we would rather hold the yen and the Scandinavian currencies.…
The Bank of England did not adjust monetary policy at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday. The Bank Rate was maintained at 0.1% and its target stock of asset purchases was held at GBP 895 billion. Although the BoE revised…
While it is well known that UK equities have been in a secular downtrend against the US, it is often less appreciated that they have greatly underperformed euro area stocks for the past 32 years. There is little reason to believe…