Highlights With a vaccine already rolling out in the UK and soon in the US, investors have reason to be optimistic about next year. Government bond yields are rising, cyclical equities are outperforming defensives, international stocks…
According to BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service, it is not too late to go long GBP-EUR. A near-term global risk-off move would work against this trade, but it is a strategic opportunity. The Brexit finale is…
According to BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy service, currency markets also continue to ignore the risks of a no-deal Brexit and the significant acceleration in the pace of COVID-19 infections. The Bank of England…
We noted in an Insight earlier this week that the performance of UK equities this year has been especially bad, in part due to the heavy tech underweight of the UK equity market. When analyzing regional equity performance,…
The various inflation indicators for the UK in September were a mixed bag. While Core CPI inflation hit expectations of 1.3% annually, the monthly headline CPI print hit 0.4%, below expectations of 0.5%. The most positive element…
The UK’s RICS House Price Balance indicator surged to 61% in September, handily beating expectations of a decline to 40% from 44%. A strong RICS argues in favor of an acceleration in UK house price gains, which creates a…
Highlights The great political surprises of 2016 are approaching key deadlines on November 3 and December 31. Investors should not let Brexit take their eye off the US election. Globalization will retreat faster under Trump regardless…
The Bank of England met yesterday and left policy unchanged. However, the meeting’s minutes revealed that the MPC is actively exploring the implementation of a negative Bank rate. So serious is the idea, the BoE is in talks…
The UK is once again playing hardball with the EU. The proposed Internal Market Bill would violate the terms of the post-Brexit deal already agreed with the EU. If implemented, the UK seriously risks being treated as a trading…
Highlights We remain bearish on the US dollar over the next 12 months. The best vehicle to express this view continues to be the Scandinavian currencies (NOK and SEK). Precious metals remain a buy so long as the dollar faces downside…