Highlights The cyclical rally in stocks is not over, but the S&P 500 will churn between 2800 and 3200 this summer. Supportive policy, robust household balance sheets and budding economic growth have put a floor under global…
The pound historically is a pro-cyclical currency. The UK sports a current account deficit of 3.74% of GDP. Funding such a large deficit is easier when global liquidity is plentiful, when global growth is strong, and when risk…
Highlights We conservatively estimate lost output from shutdowns and social distancing will equal $10 trillion, and we expect the jobs market to be permanently scarred. Inflation, even at 2 percent, is a pipe dream, which leads to…
Highlights The dollar is likely to churn on recent weakness before a cyclical bear market fully unfolds. The reason is that the economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty, both politically and economically. We continue to…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of the Monitors are now below the zero line, indicating the need for continued easy global monetary policy to help mitigate the…
Highlights Investment Grade Sector Valuation: Our investment grade corporate bond sector valuation models for the US, euro area, UK, Canada and Australia show some common messages, as markets have adjusted to a virus-stricken world.…
British retail sales excluding auto fuel collapsed 18.4% in April compared to last year, resulting in the worst contraction on record. This poor number comes on the heels of dismal consumer confidence, inflation, and employment…
Dear client, In lieu of our regular weekly report next week, we will hold a webcast on Thursday at 10:00 am ET discussing both tactical and strategic currency considerations. The format will be a short presentation, followed by a Q&…