Inflation is perking up in the UK. Headline CPI jumped from 1.3% to 1.8% in January, while the more volatile retail price index surged from 2.2% to 2.7%. This follows a relatively robust labor market report for December that saw…
The UK’s service sector is showing signs of revival as the services PMI is rebounding significantly. This improvement is not an isolated phenomenon. Since the December election, consumer confidence, business optimism and…
Highlights China’s economic rebound in Q1 will be delayed due to the coronavirus, which will have a larger negative hit than SARS. New stimulus measures will assist a rebound in demand later this year. Europe remains a…
Highlights The coronavirus scare is the catalyst for the recent correction, not the cause. The true cause is that the stock market had reached a point of groupthink-triggered instability and therefore needed the slightest catalyst to…
Highlights Most central banks still consider economic risks asymmetrical to the downside. This means that even if global growth rebounds in earnest, policy is likely to stay pat over the next three to six months. The conclusion is…
Highlights 2020 Model Bond Portfolio Positioning: Translating our 2020 global fixed income Key Views into recommended positioning within our model bond portfolio comes up with the following conclusions: target a moderately aggressive…
Conservatives won 364 seats last night. This comfortable majority for the Conservatives is a medium-term positive for UK exposed investments, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not dependent on the 20 or so hard Brexit…
Highlights 2019 was a good year for our constraint-based method of political analysis. Trump was impeached, the trade war escalated, and China (modestly) stimulated – all as predicted. Nevertheless Trump caught us by surprise…
The 2019 UK General Election result offers four possible medium-term outcomes for UK exposed investments: Conservatives win 340 seats or more: This comfortable majority for the Conservatives is medium-term positive for UK exposed…