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Central Bank Monitor Update: Who Can Land The Economy Softly?

Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies. 

Global Fixed Income Strategy, European Investment Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Eugenia Pan
September PMIs: Global Momentum Running Out Of Steam
September flash PMIs show slowing global momentum, reinforcing US equity outperformance and underweights in industrial metals. The US composite slipped to 53.6 from 54.6, led by weaker manufacturing. Europe was mixed: Services strengthened modestly but…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Stairway To Asia: The Dollar’s Brief Lift Before The Fall

A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Trading Global Yield Curves: Where Steepeners Still Work
Special Report

Monetary policy surprises shape curve trade returns. We show where steepeners and flatteners offer the best risk-reward in today’s market.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
The UK Economy Is Sick… Literally
Our Counterpoint strategists recommend a structural overweight in GBP/USD and UK gilts relative to US Treasuries, and a tactical short in China’s CSI 300. Our colleagues argue a sharp rise in long-term sickness and disability has tightened UK labor supply,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The UK Economy Is Sick… Literally
Special Report

A surge in UK employees on long-term sick leave or with a work limiting health condition explains stubbornly high UK wage inflation. This leaves the Bank of England and the UK government with some tough choices to make in the months ahead. Plus, a new tactical trade is short CSI 300.

 

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
UK CPI Hot, But Growth Weakness Points To More BoE Cuts
Hot July inflation does not alter the weakening UK backdrop, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m, lifting y/y inflation to 3.8% from 3.6%, while core ticked up to 3.8% from 3.7%. Services inflation remained sticky,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
UK: Tight Financial Conditions, Weak Data Support Gilt Overweight
UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England has lagged the ECB in its…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The BoE Is Looking In The Rearview Mirror

The BoE is easing, but risks falling behind. Labor and growth cracks are starting to emerge, and the Bank may soon be forced to move more decisively. This report outlines why gilts remain a buy and sterling’s path is diverging vs. USD and EUR.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Robert Timper, Mathieu Savary
The BoE Risks Falling Behind The Curve
The BoE delivered a narrow rate cut to 4%, but a divided vote and fading growth momentum suggest markets are underpricing further easing. Stay overweight UK Gilts. The 5-4 split reflected concerns among dissenters about a stalling disinflation process as…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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