The Bank of England (BoE) held rates steady at last week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, keeping the Bank Rate at 0.75%. The MPC modestly lowered its growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 due to the dual…
Highlights So What? Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s threat to take the U.K. out of the EU without a withdrawal deal in place is a substantial 21% risk. Why? The odds of a no-deal exit could range from today’s 21% to around…
While the Conservatives and the U.K. have a new leader, as far as Brexit is concerned, plus ça change plus c’est la même chose. A new leader does not change the tight parliamentary arithmetic in which the…
Highlights So What? Key geopolitical risks remain unresolved and most of the improvements are transitory. Maintain a cautious tactical stance toward risk assets. Why? U.S.-China relations remain the preeminent geopolitical risk to…
Highlights As central banks continue to push on a string for 2 percent inflation, it will underpin the valuation of equities and other risk-assets. So long as the global 10-year bond yield remains well below 2.5 percent, equity market…
Highlights The breakout in financial asset prices stands at odds with a deteriorating profit outlook. This suggests a high probability of a coiled-spring reversal in one of the two variables as we enter the thin summer trading months.…
It is not yet a done deal, but the shift within the party in favor of accepting a “no deal” exit is clear. None of the remaining candidates is willing to forgo that option. The newest development advances us along…
Highlights The unifying chorus among global central banks is currently for more monetary stimulus. In the race towards lower interest rates, the ultimate winners will be pro-cyclical currencies. Italian 10-year real government bond…