Highlights So What? Geopolitical risks are not about to ease. Why? Fiscal policy becomes less accommodative next year unless politicians act. Financial conditions give President Trump room to expand his tariff onslaught. Our…
The no-deal option is the default scenario if an agreement is not finalized by the Halloween deadline and no further extension is granted. However, Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow recently stated that the prime…
While the timeline for this process is straightforward, the impact on the Brexit process is not. The odds of a “no-deal Brexit” have increased but so has the prospect of parliament passing a soft Brexit prior to any…
Highlights So What? U.S.-China relations are still in free fall as we go to press. Why? The trade war will elicit Chinese stimulus but downside risks to markets are front-loaded. The oil risk premium will remain elevated as Iran…
Highlights Global financial markets are currently dealing with a fresh round of uncertainty related to U.S.-China trade tensions. Yet while equities and government bond yields have fallen in response to the U.S. imposition of tariffs and…
The lack of more pronounced strength in pro-cyclical currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars suggests that caution prevails. Our Foreign Exchange Services team’s bias is that currency markets…
Highlights Recent data suggest central bankers remain behind the curve in boosting inflation expectations. Ergo, expect a dovish bias to persist over the next few months. Our thesis remains that global growth is in a volatile…
Highlights So what? Quantifying geopolitical risk just got easier. Why? In this report we introduce 10 proprietary, market-based indicators of country-level political and geopolitical risk. Featured countries include…
Highlights Evidence continues to mount that the Chinese economy is in a bottoming process. This suggests the path of least resistance for the RMB is up. Meanwhile, as the U.S. and China move closer to a trade deal, any geopolitical…
Our Foreign Exchange Strategy team’s simple observation is that while the pound is sitting exactly where it was after the 2016 referendum results, the odds of a hard Brexit have significantly fallen since then. We are…