Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…
By curtailing its forecasts, the BoE acknowledged reality: The British economy is slowing. Like other central banks around the world, the BoE recognized the deterioration in global trade as a key headwind. However, it also…
Highlights So What? The late-cycle rally faces non-trivial political hurdles. Why? The rally is based on a too-sanguine view of the Fed, China, and the trade war. Other issues – like Brexit and the U.S. border showdown…
Highlights Global equity markets have managed to recoup some of last year’s plunge since we upgraded stocks to overweight in late December. The equity rally has been tentative, however, and so far feels more like a technical…
All the components of the U.K. CHM have contributed to this worsening trend. Even short-term liquidity, which had been in a powerful uptrend for almost a decade, has started to roll over. The cause for this deterioration can…
Highlights We recently upgraded our recommended investment stance on global corporate bonds to overweight on a tactical (3 to 6 months) basis.1 Feature That change was mostly based on our view that global financial conditions had…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…
The EU is on record stating that it would agree to extend the Article 50 deadline, currently set for March 29. The EU can do so with a unanimous vote of the EU Council. London can extend Article 50 with a simple legislative act,…