The latest UK data supports a May BoE cut, reinforcing our overweight in Gilts as growth headwinds build and inflation cools. Employment declined by 78k in March, accelerating from February’s downwardly revised 8k drop, while…
Bonds are failing to deliver defensive convexity; asset allocators should look to tactical curve steepeners for protection. Despite rising growth fears, Treasury yields have risen sharply at the long end. This is a clear break from…
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
Tariffs will make a difficult job almost impossible. Hitting and sustaining a precise 2 percent inflation target is more about luck than judgement. It requires both the starting point for inflation expectations and any inflation/…
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position…
UK financial conditions have tightened just as economic surprises have turned negative, an uncomfortable combination that reinforces our tactical positioning. We remain overweight UK gilts within a global bond portfolio and are…
This report is a quick take on our views on UK bonds and FX, given the recent budget.
UK inflation came in cooler than expected in February, but lingering price pressures and a still-firm labor market keep the BoE sidelined, for now. Our Global Fixed-Income strategists view the BoE as the most likely DM central bank…
The Bank of England held its policy rate at 4.5%, with only one MPC member dissenting to cut 25 bps. The BoE signaled a slower pace of easing, as inflation remains elevated while global growth becomes increasingly uncertain. …
Given the meetings between the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank, our highest convictions views are:Overweight UK Gilts. It is also time to sell sterling. We are short sterling, as of 1.30. …