Highlights The delay to the U.K. parliamentary vote on the current Brexit deal has edged up our assessed probability of no-deal to 20 percent. Our probability-weighted value of the GBP is still around 5 percent higher than today.…
Highlights On a 6-month horizon, go long a combination of banks and high quality 10-year bonds. The recommended combination is 25 cents in the banks and 75 cents in the bonds. The preferred banks are European or euro area and the…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have…
Highlights The relative performance of developed market (DM) versus emerging market (EM) equities just corresponds to the relative performance of healthcare versus financials. On a six month horizon, DM will underperform EM. Within…
Highlights Global growth has not yet bottomed, this will provide additional support for the dollar. EUR/USD will be a buy once it dips below 1.1, as slowing global growth means that European activity will continue to lag behind the U.…
Highlights Duration Strategy: The recent market turmoil was a long overdue risk asset correction that does not change any fundamental underpinnings for rising global bond yields. Stay below-benchmark on overall global duration exposure…