Highlights The greenback normally weakens when the U.S. business cycle matures; 2018 may prove an exception to this rule. Rising U.S. inflation could clash with deteriorating global growth, bringing the monetary divergence narrative…
Highlights Global corporate bond markets have seen both ups and downs so far in 2018. Credit spreads in the developed markets and emerging markets, both for investment grade (IG) and lower quality credit tiers, tightened in January. This…
Highlights Trade wars have captured investors' imaginations, but slowing global growth is a more immediate risk for both asset prices and exchange rates. As reflationary forces ebb, slow global growth will help the dollar stage a…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. When the chartbook was last published in September 2017, the main message was that less accommodative monetary policy was required…
Highlights Fixed Income Asset Allocation: Global growth indicators remain solid, while inflation pressures continue to build. Central banks will remain focused on those factors, and not news-driven market volatility spikes, until the…
Highlights The global economic mini-cycle is set to weaken while the euro is set to grind higher. Upgrade Telecoms to overweight. Also overweight Healthcare and Airlines. Underweight Banks, Basic Materials and Energy. Overweight…
Highlights Bond Strategy: The investment backdrop is broadly evolving the way that we forecasted in our 2018 Outlook, thus we continue to maintain our core strategic recommendations. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and…
Highlights Federal Reserve: Is the U.S. neutral rate now higher? ECB: How much has the euro rally damaged European growth? Bank of Japan: Will a stronger yen tip Japan back into deflation? Bank of England: Will higher real wages…
Highlights The best recession indicators are not flashing red, but volatility is rising as the end of the cycle approaches; U.S. fiscal policy is surprising to the upside, as we expected; The next recession will usher in an…