Highlights The dollar seems to have entered a cyclical bear market, which suggests that EUR/USD is in a multi-year bull market. While the euro performs well in the late stages of the business cycle, it has moved ahead of long-term…
Highlights U.S. equities 'melted up' in January as tax cuts made the robust growth/low inflation sweet spot even sweeter. Ominously, recent market action is beginning to resemble a classic late cycle blow-off phase. The…
Highlights Global Duration Strategy: Global bond yields continue to move higher, driven by rising inflation expectations and falling investor risk aversion. With global interest rates still not at levels that will restrict growth or…
Highlights Should the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield approach 3% it would be a red flag, and a trigger to downgrade equities. Equity investors should stay overweight defensive-heavy Switzerland and Denmark. Contrary to what the consensus…
Dear Client, We are sending you this last issue of the year, a lighter fare than usual, highlighting 10 charts we find important. The first two charts tackle two of the key economic questions of the day: U.S. inflation and Chinese…
Feature It has been a Geopolitical Strategy tradition, since our launch in 2012, to include our best and worst forecasts of the year in our end-of-year Strategic Outlook monthly reports.1 Since we have switched over to a weekly…
Recommended Allocation Highlights We are late cycle. Strong growth could turn in 2018 from a positive for risk assets into a negative. More risk-averse investors may thus want to turn cautious. But the last year of a bull run…
Highlights Geopolitical risks were overstated in 2017, but have now become understated; If Donald Trump becomes an early "lame duck" president, he will seek relevance abroad; This could mean a protectionist White House, or…