The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…
Highlights The FOMC statement was somewhat more hawkish than expected. The Fed is on course to raise rates two to three times next year. Trump's policy views are squarely bearish for bonds, but more mixed for stocks. Investors are…
Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…
Highlights Global Duration: Global bond yields, pushed higher since July on the back of improving global growth and rising inflation, have now overshot to the upside on excessive expectations of U.S. fiscal stimulus. Take profits on…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of November 30, 2016. The model further augmented the overweight to the U.S. despite the fact that the U.S. had already been the…
Highlights The 50bps spike in the JPM global government bond yield since August constitutes one of the most aggressive tightenings since the Great Recession. Higher bond yields weaken credit growth, and weaker credit growth almost…
BCA will be holding the Dubai session of the BCA Academy seminar on November 28 & 29. This two-day course teaches investment professionals how to examine the economy, policy, and markets; and also makes links between these important…
Highlights The credibility of ECB QE is set to diminish, one way or another. Stay long euro/dollar. Expect a continued compression in the German Bund yield spread versus the U.S. T-bond. Until the U.K. Supreme Court provides further…
Highlights De-globalization is accelerating. Europe is holding together, with populism in check. China power consolidation reflects extreme risks. Brexit is more likely, not less, after court ruling. Feature Chart I-1America Has…
Highlights Despite a tough week, the dollar bull market is intact. The U.S. economy's resilience to a strong dollar is growing. But, if Trump wins, the dollar could temporarily sell off against EUR, CHF, and JPY. Favor these…