Special Report

Investors are overstating the legal and political constraints to "helicopter money"; The BoJ and BoE have few legal hurdles, whereas the ECB would have to get creative to stay within the existing law; Inflation-phobia in…

Special Report

We extracted the key factors driving currency returns; these variables approximate the dollar, EM spreads, and commodities. Any currency's sensitivity to these factors can be estimated, offering a great degree of flexibility for…

Special Report

It is becoming increasingly likely that the U.K. will, after all, exit the EU. Feature The initial post-Brexit economic data have surprised to the upside as a result of the Bank of England's quick reflexes, the fall of the pound, and…

The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…

Wedged between an improving labor market but icy global conditions, the Fed may be on the verge of conducting a policy mistake. This would be dollar and yen bullish. Commodity and EM currencies should bear the brunt of any pain. The…

We reveal what our most-trusted leading indicators are predicting about the major economies, and end with a provocative conclusion.

In August, the model outperformed the S&P 500 and global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For September, the model increased its allocation to cash and trimmed its exposure to equities.

Special Report

The populist backlash, if left unchecked, could spiral out of control, leading to severe losses for investors. Concerns about lax financial regulation, rising inequality, unfettered globalization, and fiscal austerity are…

Special Report

The 10-year Treasury yield's post-crisis pattern suggests that a monetary policy catalyst is required to spur a material increase of around +100bps or more. In this Special Report we do a survey of the major developed market central…

U.S. inflationary forces remain tame, forcing the Fed to maintain an easy bias. Yet, the global economy is improving. This confluence could weigh on the dollar and boost commodity currencies. The NZD has more upside, but it will lag…