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UK

BoE Cuts, But Sends Mixed Message
The Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 4.5%, with two members of the MPC voting to cut 50 bps instead. The BoE acknowledged “substantial progress on disinflation”, driven by a tight policy stance and stabilized inflation expectations. The dovish…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Expect More Rate Cuts From The BoE

Following today’s Bank of England’s policy meeting, at which the policy rate was cut by 25 bps, we discuss our outlook for monetary policy in the UK. We expect the gradual easing to continue and discuss the investment implications for UK gilts and sterling.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Chester Ntonifor
Still On The Tightrope

While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
UK: Cooling Employment Will Contain Inflation
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK: Inflation Surprises To The Downside
UK inflation surprised to the downside in December. Headline inflation retreated below estimates to 2.5% y/y from an eight-month high of 2.6% in November. Core inflation also decreased below estimates, printing 3.2% vs. 3.5% in November. Services inflation,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Bond Market Riot Engulfs Europe
Our European Investment strategists looked at the developed markets bond selloff from a European perspective, focusing on Euro area and UK government bonds and currencies. The recent selloff in European bonds is driven primarily by surging US yields,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Bond Market Riot Engulfs Europe

UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon? 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
UK: Fade Hot CPI
The November UK CPI, in line with estimates, hit an eight-month high, accelerating from 2.3% y/y to 2.6%. Core and services inflation were also strong at 3.5% (vs. 3.3% in October) and 5.0% (flat from October), respectively.  Services inflation…
Daily Insights
Key Views 2025: The Year Of Change

For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Hot UK CPI Won’t Cool BoE Easing Intentions
UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y.   We do not expect…
Daily Insights

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