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US Dollar

Echoes Of The Late 1960s
The dollar is now far more dependent on foreign equity inflows than it was in the late Bretton Woods era, leaving it vulnerable if capital inflows weaken. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief EM/China Strategist. Arthur draws a…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Echoes Of The Late 1960s: Get Out Of The Dollar (G.O.D.)
Special Report

The US dollar will become a pro-cyclical currency going forward. This regime shift would upend financial market correlations, and most investment portfolios are not positioned for it. A great deal of money is made or lost during regime changes - and one is coming soon. That is why our message remains loud and clear: Get Out of the Dollar (G.O.D.).

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
On The US Dollar
Our clients expect the US dollar to weaken over the next 12 months. In this week's poll, we asked respondents where they expect the DXY to be 12 months from now, relative to its current level of around 100. More than half (54%) of our clients see the dollar…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
Fade The Dollar, Watch The Yen

The dollar has had a strong run but its key supports from Fed repricing, positioning, and terms of trade are starting to fade. We close our tactical long USD positions and turn to short USD/JPY, where intervention risk makes yen shorts look increasingly dangerous.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Artem Sakhbiev
The USD Breakout That Won’t Break
The USD has moved sideways this year, but its behavior has become more defensive since the Iran war began. After fears of a USD “exodus” last year, the dollar has instead acted as a safe-haven during the Iran war. The DXY’s correlation with implied volatility…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
USD Outlook: Growing Resilience, Lingering Fed Risk
The cyclical outlook for the US dollar is improving and reinforces positioning for further dollar strength in the near term against energy importers. As a net energy exporter, the US economy remains more resilient to the terms-of-trade shock and the risks of…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
The Dollar's Missing War Premium

The dollar's muted response to the Iran conflict has led many to question its safe-haven appeal. We argue the opposite – the dollar's defensive properties have returned, while improving growth and rate dynamics should underpin further USD strength in the months ahead.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Artem Sakhbiev
What Will Replace The Dollar?
The dollar is not losing its role, but it is losing its exclusivity, supporting a structural bid for reserve assets that replicate its functions. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief DM ex-US Strategist. The decline of the US dollar has…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Dollar Roundtrip: Geopolitics Priced Out, Reality Pending
Our FX strategists maintain a tactical upside bias on the USD over the next 1-3 months. The dollar's cyclical backdrop has improved across growth, monetary policy, and portfolio flows since February, even as longer-term structural headwinds persist. The…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Dollar Roundtrip: Geopolitics Priced Out, Reality Pending

The dollar’s pullback masks a quiet improvement in its cyclical backdrop, with growth, monetary policy, and flows turning in its favor. As markets fully price out geopolitical risk, the USD should decouple from oil and better reflect these gains, despite lingering structural headwinds.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Artem Sakhbiev

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