US Dollar
Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s election: Won’t the economy…
Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US stands at an unprecedented and unsustainable…
After cutting three times already since June, the Bank of Canada fulfilled market expectations and cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. The BoC sees risks around inflation as roughly balanced over its projection horizon, and is focused on “sticking the…
The US dollar had a strong October thus far, breaching its 20-,50- and 200-day moving averages with a 4% increase and only three trading days in the red. The DXY now sits above where it was before the August selloff in risk assets. What’s behind this…
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.
The month of October ahead of a US general election tends to be a volatile month with negative outcome for equities. As such, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until after the election.
The dollar had erased all of its 2024 gains going into the fall, as markets prepared for Fed rate cuts. After a nearly 6% drawdown over the spring and summer, last week’s DXY rally brought the dollar back into the black YTD. Can these gains continue now…
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.