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US Dollar

The Fed is mispriced for the rest of 2025. We explain why the dollar is poised to rebound and the trades to position for it. 

The Fed’s actions tell us that it has chosen to avoid a recession at the cost of moving its inflation goalposts to 3 percent. Thus begins the slippery slope to price instability. Long-term investors should underweight the dollar, own some gold, but better than gold is bitcoin. Plus, a new tactical trade is short GOOGL vs. SPY.


 

From Treasurys to tokenization, stablecoins are quietly becoming one of the most disruptive forces in global finance, with the power to compress yields, deepen dollar penetration, and shift the balance within crypto markets. Explore BCA’s latest insights on their growing impact.

USD-denominated Emerging Market bonds have been outperforming US corporates for the past year. We don’t think the rally is exhausted yet.

A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.

Trump-era policy patterns are reappearing in FX, supporting a temporary bounce in the dollar. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chester Ntonifor, FX Solutions and Special Reports strategist.Chester updated his “KISS” (Keep It Simple & Stupid) chart, which…
Our Bank Credit Analyst team sees stablecoins and cryptocurrencies as unlikely to displace fiat, but expects their use to grow, with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) ultimately dominating. Stablecoins are here to stay as a bridge between crypto…
BCA clients expect the US dollar to weaken over the next three months. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of our website, 48% of respondents forecast the dollar (DXY) to fall below 96 over the next three months (versus 98.6 now),…
UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England has lagged the ECB in its…
Trade tensions briefly broke the USD-rates link, but the dollar will remain a  countercyclical currency for the near future. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, driven by foreign investors reducing exposure to US assets. At the peak of stress,…