BCA clients expect the US dollar to weaken over the next three months. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of our website, 48% of respondents forecast the dollar (DXY) to fall below 96 over the next three…

 UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England…

 Trade tensions briefly broke the USD-rates link, but the dollar will remain a  countercyclical currency for the near future. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, driven by foreign investors reducing exposure to US assets…

 Our US Political Strategy team recommends staying long the US dollar, as Trump’s peak political capital drives near-term policy volatility and renewed support for US assets. Market optimism is underpinned by AI enthusiasm and…

 Dollar softness has had little growth impact, and European equities should keep lagging. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, but the associated easing in financial conditions has offered minimal support to US growth,…

 European sentiment has moderated, pointing to near-term downside risk for a technically-stretched Euro. The August Eurozone ZEW Expectations index fell to 25.1 from 36.1, with Germany’s reading missing estimates, dropping sharply to…

 Our DM ex. US strategists see the yen entering a multi-year rally and recommend shorting EUR/JPY now while preparing to short USD/JPY as Fed cuts approach. The yen remains deeply undervalued across PPP, unit labor cost, and real…

 EUR/USD has broken below key support, and near-term risks justify a tactical bearish stance while longer-term investors should buy dips. The pair fell through its 50-day moving average, which, along with the 20-day, had provided…