The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our…

Today, we publish our Quarterly Model Bond Portfolio report. We discuss how the trade war has further increased the global recession risk, but US Treasuries could underperform their global peers in the near term. We cover the fixed…

Although there may be a method to DOGE’s 100-mile-an-hour madness, we think the worries and uncertainty stoked by it and on-again, off-again tariff measures have increased the probability of a recession while bringing forward its…

This morning’s employment report showed solid job growth, but recent consumer spending indicators are more concerning. The risk of recession starting within the next few months has increased. We suggest some important indicators for…

The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and…

Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.

All the growth in the US labour supply since mid-2023 has come from immigration. This means if net immigration comes to a grinding halt, as Trump wants, it will hurt economic growth as well as keep the labour market supply-…