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Is Kevin Warsh Correct About AI’s Impact On Inflation And Interest Rates?

The AI boom will increase inflation in the near term and could also raise it over the long term. The Fed’s reluctance to hike rates is understandable, but it risks amplifying what may already be a brewing stock market bubble. 

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
9 hours ago
Inflation Pressures Everywhere You Look
Severe US droughts reinforce an already inflationary backdrop and highlight risks of overshoots, warranting close monitoring. Close to 60% of continental US territory is in drought conditions, making this one of the worst drought episodes on record, according…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
9 hours ago
Kevin Warsh’s Communications Challenge

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2026.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
10 hours ago
AI Capex: Moving Into Overshoot

The magnitude of US tech/AI capital spending already rivals past bubble thresholds, threatening hyperscalers’ future returns on capital. There are echoes of previous market tops. Our preferred overlay strategy for equity portfolios remains long semiconductor producers / short hyperscalers.

Emerging Markets Strategy, Counterpoint by Arthur Budaghyan
15 hours ago
Beige Book: Concentrated Growth With Rising Cost Pressure
The Beige Book reinforces a slight-to-moderate growth backdrop with widening consumer stress, stronger manufacturing, and sticky cost pressures. Latest comments provide a new angle into recent developments and the sentiment of economic agents in the face of…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
1 day ago
USD Outlook: Growing Resilience, Lingering Fed Risk
The cyclical outlook for the US dollar is improving and reinforces positioning for further dollar strength in the near term against energy importers. As a net energy exporter, the US economy remains more resilient to the terms-of-trade shock and the risks of…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
1 day ago
JOLTS Surprise: Less Than Meets The Eye
The April JOLTS report confirms a mixed labor market signal rather than a clean reacceleration, reinforcing the view that the Fed can avoid hiking unless inflation expectations or core inflation force the issue. Job openings jumped sharply above expectations…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
2 days ago
ISM PMI: Manufacturing Running Hot
May’s US ISM Manufacturing report reinforces improving activity alongside persistent price pressure, highlighting continued inflationary impulse and hawkish risks to US monetary policy. The headline index came in at 54, above the market expectation of 53,…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
On US Equities
Our clients are cautiously optimistic about US equities through year-end. In last week's poll, we asked where respondents expect the S&P 500 to finish by year's end. BCA clients were the most constructive: 59% expect the index to stay within ±10% of…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
Earnings Bubbles Are Still Bubbles

The AI bubble is a different type of bubble. It is primarily an earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. Like all bubbles, the AI bubble will burst. For now, however, our AI demand indicators do not suggest that this is imminent.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin, Ayaan Sohhel, James Thayer

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