Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026
Our Global Investment strategists expect 2026 to mark the turning point from AI boom to bust, with their highest conviction trade (short QQQ / long TLT) positioned to capitalize. Internet infrastructure data offers a warning: Traffic…
Maintain a modestly defensive stance as the Empire survey reinforces a picture of slow and fragile growth. The December Empire Manufacturing survey missed estimates, falling to -3.9 from 18.7 and implying a slight decline in activity…
Europe’s equity outperformance is real, and even stronger once adjusted for FX. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, Chief European Investment Strategist. Banks and defense stocks (not tech and communication services…
This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…
Our US Equity strategists remain constructive on equities in 2026, with monetary easing, fiscal support, GenAI capex, and strong earnings growth all favoring the asset class. While valuations are extended, they think bubble concerns…
The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates.
Maintain a long duration stance and favor curve steepeners as the Fed’s outlook remains too optimistic relative to ongoing labor and growth deterioration. The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.5%–3.75%. The decision again drew two-sided…
Maintain a modestly defensive stance as cooling wage growth reinforces labor-market weakness. The delayed Q3 Employment Cost Index missed estimates, slowing to 0.8% q/q. The “core” ECI measure, which excludes incentives-paid…
