Our GeoMacro strategists remain overweight equities and bonds for now but warn that markets will soon test their “melt-up” thesis, as the cycle transitions from cash- to leverage-driven growth. The dominant theme of 2025 is not AI,…
The October Empire Manufacturing survey beat estimates, but weak investment and hiring intentions temper its positive signal. The index rose to 10.7 from -8.7, indicating modest activity growth. New orders ticked up, and shipments…
The October Fed Beige Book points to slowing growth as uncertainty continues to weigh on activity. Fed contacts reported consumer spending recently decreased, though auto sales were supported by EV purchases ahead of the expiration…
The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, falling to 98.8 from 100.8. The decrease was driven by expectations, as fewer small businesses expect the economy to improve or real sales to rise. Firms also…
Cross-asset volatility fell in recent weeks, with lower rates volatility supporting risk assets. The MOVE index, which tracks implied USD rates volatility, recently dropped to its 20th percentile before rebounding. This decline…
AI adoption momentum has cooled recently among the largest US companies, although firms of all sizes still expect to increase their usage over the next six months. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Miroslav Aradski of BCA…
Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual.
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
Gold’s decisive break above $4,000/oz, extending gains to over 55% year-to-date, reinforces the structural bull case driven by persistent central bank demand and mounting fiscal concerns globally, supporting an overweight stance in…
The dollar’s early 2025 decline was a reflection of a global rush to hedge accumulated USD exposure, not a mass exodus from US assets. With most hedging now complete, currency moves should again follow fundamentals, setting the stage…