United States
The delayed December JOLTS report confirms the US labor market remains in a stable but fragile “low hiring, low firing” regime. Job openings missed estimates and fell to 6.54m from a downwardly revised 6.93m, translating into a 0.3 percentage point decline in…
The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year.
The January ISM Services report showed mixed growth signals along with inflationary pressures. The January ISM Services PMI was roughly in line with expectations and unchanged at 53.8 from December. The details of the report were weak: Employment slowed to…
The US labor market remains weak but stable, leaving both labor conditions and US rates at a pivotal point. Given the partial government shutdown, Friday’s January employment report has been postponed to February 11. Alternative data show the US labor market…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2026.
Global manufacturing is stabilizing, with early indications that macro momentum could be turning. The global economy slowed through 2025 due to tariffs and uncertainty, but there are now signs of recovering manufacturing. While DM composite PMIs have largely…
Our Developed Markets ex-US strategists view global liquidity as the decisive macro variable in 2025 and expect it to remain broadly supportive through most of 2026. They therefore stay neutral on equities versus bonds, keep a positive bias toward metals,…
Maintain an overweight duration stance and curve steepeners within US bond portfolios, as the recent uptick in ISM price pressures comes from delivery times, not accelerating costs. While the December ISM Manufacturing report delivered positive growth…
Our US equity strategists expect another year of gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, with returns capped by revenue growth as the bull market matures. The US economy is slowing but not contracting, pointing to positive but more modest equity returns. Equity…
Manufacturing data points to resilience after a prolonged slowdown, with inflation risks tilting modestly higher. The January ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations and moved back into expansion at 52.6, after ten consecutive months of contraction through…