United States
BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US economy and prevented a recession in 2023. Now, many estimates of pandemic-era excess savings show that they have run out. While consumption is…
Way back in the 1970s and 1980s, before investment returns were assessed in relation to benchmarks and return of capital had the upper hand over return on capital, BCA researchers were invited to consider the following thought experiment: Imagine you live…
US shelter inflation has been stubbornly high for the past few years, but we finally saw a notable drop in the June CPI release. Given that shelter accounts for more than 40% of the core CPI index, the outlook for shelter inflation is critical for the overall…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, shrinking dollar liquidity often coincides with financial market crises and also leads to an appreciation in the currency, as the premium foreigners are willing to pay to get USD cash increases. …
The latest iteration of the Fed’s Beige Book, a compilation of qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its twelve Districts, was released Wednesday afternoon. The Beige Book precedes FOMC meetings by two weeks…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the market is overestimating the odds of a soft landing. Our colleagues’ client polls have shown that 59% of respondents expect the US economy to achieve a soft landing; this number has been bolstered…
On Monday morning, both election betting markets and financial markets reacted to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump that occurred over the weekend. Predictably, the betting odds that Trump will win the presidency in November rose to 67% (from 60% on…
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?
The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.
US dollar liquidity has been shrinking, which has important ramifications for global asset prices, including currencies. In this report, we delve into the process of dollar liquidity creation and the outlook for currencies over the next six-to-twelve months.