United States
Remain neutral on equities; strong Q3 growth hinged on consumer resilience that leading indicators suggest will fade. US Q3 GDP beat estimates, accelerating to a 4.3% annualized pace from 3.8% in Q2, the fastest in two years. Consumption was the main driver,…
Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.
Investors expect more than one cut from the Fed in 2026. In this week’s poll, clients clearly answered that they expect the Fed to ease by more than the December dots suggest. Across the BCA website, LinkedIn and X, more than 70% of respondents answered that…
Markets rarely follow the playbook, and neither do the people best trained to handle chaos. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist. Each year, the GAA team curates a holiday reading list for investors. This…
Our FX strategists view the dollar as increasingly vulnerable in 2026, with structural headwinds building and cyclical supports fading. A multi-year downtrend is becoming more likely unless the US can sustain economic and equity outperformance without…
Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.
Maintain a long-duration stance and favor curve steepeners as disinflation remains well on track. US November CPI showed cooling inflation, but the report was heavily impacted by the government shutdown, with October data extrapolated in place of actual BLS…
Our US and Geopolitical strategists see rising demand for a third party in the US, but expect the two-party system to hold through the 2028 election. The macro backdrop will shape whether a left-wing populist emerges as the Democratic nominee. In the…
Our US Investment strategists recommend maintaining benchmark equity exposure, despite weakening job gains, as the AI narrative may still drive a late-cycle melt-up. While recession risks are building, they argue against underweighting equities prematurely,…
Maintain a modestly defensive allocation as retail sales show slowing consumption despite firmer underlying details. October US retail sales presented a mixed picture, with a second consecutive soft headline reading. Headline sales were flat, down from a…