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Will 2026 Provide Investors With A Breadth Of Fresh Air?

2026 should see another year of gains for the S&P 500, but, as the bull market matures and growth slows, returns will be capped by revenue growth rather than being boosted by expanding margins and multiples. We think Tech can outperform, but leadership will broaden and performance gaps will narrow.

US Equity Strategy by Noah Weisberger
MacroQuant Model Update: Stayin’ Alive

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.

Global Investment Strategy, Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li, Ayaan Sohhel
Will The AI “Scaling Laws” Continue?
Our Bank Credit Analyst colleagues see an increasingly asymmetric risk profile for global equities, as technology expectations hinge on continued exponential progress in AI models. Expectations for tech earnings, semiconductor demand, and US data center…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Warsh: A Born-Again Dove?
Steepeners remain the right trade under a Warsh-led Fed. President Trump announced his intention to nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Despite concerns about Fed independence during the process, Warsh is a conventional candidate.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
S&P 500: Cautious Optimism?
S&P 500: Cautious Optimism? …
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
The K-Shaped US Economy Is Cracking At The Bottom
Resilient US consumption masks rising financial stress in the lower half of a K-shaped economy. Incomes have been flat since the summer, and consumer confidence has deteriorated, particularly around labor-market conditions. While spending has held up, it has…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Bet On Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026

The Fed will keep rates on hold in H1 2026, but dovish policy surprises are likely in the second half of the year.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US: Checks And Balances Persist
Our US and Geopolitical strategists view US social unrest and a government shutdown as having only fleeting market implications. Checks and balances in the US political system are underrated, with institutions, the economy, and financial markets acting as a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Fed: An Uneventful Meeting At An Interesting Time
Maintain a long-duration stance as the Fed moves to wait-and-see while downside growth risks build. The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% following three consecutive rate cuts. It signaled no urgency to cut again with only Governors Miran and Waller dissenting in…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US: Checks And Balances Persist

Checks and balances in the US political system are underrated. Social unrest and government shutdown will have fleeting market implications.  

US Political Strategy, US Equity Strategy by Matt Gertken

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