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United States

Flash PMIs Reinforce Subdued Global Backdrop
Maintain an underweight in industrial commodities as flash PMIs confirm weak global growth momentum. December flash PMIs for developed markets pointed to subdued activity. The US composite slowed to 53 from 54.2, a six-month low, with both manufacturing and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Spending Slows As Labor Stagnates
Maintain a modestly defensive allocation as retail sales show slowing consumption despite firmer underlying details. October US retail sales presented a mixed picture, with a second consecutive soft headline reading. Headline sales were flat, down from a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026

Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Empire Survey Signals Slow, Fragile Activity
Maintain a modestly defensive stance as the Empire survey reinforces a picture of slow and fragile growth. The December Empire Manufacturing survey missed estimates, falling to -3.9 from 18.7 and implying a slight decline in activity. New orders fell to 0.0…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
2026 Key Views: The Return Of Nasdog
Our Global Investment strategists expect 2026 to mark the turning point from AI boom to bust, with their highest conviction trade (short QQQ / long TLT) positioned to capitalize. Internet infrastructure data offers a warning: Traffic kept rising even as capex…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe Beats The TINA Trade
Europe’s equity outperformance is real, and even stronger once adjusted for FX. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jeremie Peloso, Chief European Investment Strategist. Banks and defense stocks (not tech and communication services) have powered Europe’s…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Dispatches From the Future (January 2, 2027): The Return Of Nasdog

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
2026 Key Views: US Equity
Our US Equity strategists remain constructive on equities in 2026, with monetary easing, fiscal support, GenAI capex, and strong earnings growth all favoring the asset class. While valuations are extended, they think bubble concerns are overstated,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Fed Is Back In “Wait And See” Mode

The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates. 

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Cooling US Wage Growth Confirms A Demand-Driven Slowdown
Maintain a modestly defensive stance as cooling wage growth reinforces labor-market weakness. The delayed Q3 Employment Cost Index missed estimates, slowing to 0.8% q/q. The “core” ECI measure, which excludes incentives-paid occupations and provides a clearer…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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