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United States

A Jobs Recession Without An Economic Recession?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, it is possible that there will be a jobs recession without an economic recession in the US, as happened in 2001. The Fed is “trying to cool demand and work with what’s happening on the supply side”. So how…
Daily Insights
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Four Contentious Claims

In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in 2025. Claim #4: Japan is not in danger of a currency crisis.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Mexico: Buy On Election Dips

Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global stocks excluding the United States.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
Is Biden An Elite Oil Trader?
For obvious reasons, making money should not be the objective of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). It serves to provide the energy needs of the American people in case of a crisis. Some have even criticized the Biden administration that its sale of SPR…
Daily Insights
Is Health Care Set To Outperform?
Health care stocks have underperformed the US broad market by over 20% since the beginning of 2023. Indeed, vaccination campaigns during the pandemic years had initially boosted health care companies’ earnings. However, this tailwind eventually faded.…
Daily Insights
Watch The Stock-To-Bond Correlation
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, investors should look to the stock-to-bond ratio to time the breakout in yields. The strong positive correlation between stock and bond returns has been a consistent feature of the inflationary…
Daily Insights
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Memories Of 2001

Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Tighter Lending Standards, Weaker Loan Demand Across Most Categories In Q1 2024
Lending standards continued to tighten for most loan categories in Q1 2024. US banks reported tightening lending standards for C&I and CRE. For real-estate-backed loans to households, lending standards tightened further for Home Equity Line of Credits…
Daily Insights
Strategic Themes For US Politics In The 2020s
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, US politics this decade will follow three strategic themes for the decade: (1) generational change, (2) peak polarization, (3) limited big government. Generational Change: Millennials may be taking…
Daily Insights
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Timing The Breakout In Bond Yields

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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