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United States

Currency Implications Of A Dovish BoC
In terms of interest rate bets, markets are now roughly neutral on whether the Fed or Bank of Canada move the most in the next 12 months. BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service’s bias is that it will be the BoC (with more cuts).  Thus, a…
Daily Insights
US CPI Inflation Comes In Hot
Headline inflation came in at 0.4% on a MoM basis and 3.5% on an annual basis, beating expectations of 0.3% and 3.4% respectively. Meanwhile core inflation came in at 0.4% on a MoM basis and 3.8% on an annual basis, beating expectations of 0.3% and 3.7%…
Daily Insights
Are Materials Stocks A Buy?
Global material stocks have underperformed over the past 12 months, returning only 11.3% vs 21.4% for the overall market. But could they be a buy now? There are several arguments to argue that they will: The ISM has begun to stabilize and seems to be…
Daily Insights
Lingering Inflation Is Bullish For Energy Stocks
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, rising inflation benefits Utilities, Energy, and Materials, and is a headwind for the Consumer Discretionary sector. After a protracted bout of underperformance, the Energy sector has rebounded …
Daily Insights
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Hot CPI, But Maybe Also A Buying Opportunity In Bonds

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and bond market moves.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Gold And Bitcoin Joined At The Hip

Gold and bitcoin are conceptually joined at the hip because the value of both comes from their ‘non-confiscatability’ by inflation, by bank failure, and in the case of bitcoin, by state expropriation. The sharp recent rallies in both gold and bitcoin reflect that the market has suddenly upped the value of non-confiscatability, and a plausible explanation is that recent US inflation data show that the journey to sustained 2 percent inflation has stalled, raising the risk that the Fed might balk at finishing the journey. Plus: JPM, CL, and USD/CHF are tactical reversal candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
NFIB Confidence Deteriorates, Wages Expected Higher
The NFIB’s small business optimism index decreased by 0.9 points to 88.5 in March, missing expectations of 89.9, and reaching its lowest level since 2012. A few things stood out from the report: Labor market dynamics continue to slow. The net percent…
Daily Insights
Increased Share of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Q1 Guidance
Increased Share of S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative Q1 Guidance …
Daily Insights
Minimum Volatility Equities
Investors typically associate high-flying tech stocks with high sensitivity to interest rates. The rationale is simple: Given that most of their cashflows are further into the future, their value will be more sensitive to changes in their discounter. And…
Daily Insights
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Recap Of Investment Themes

Fears of a hard landing are abating as growth has been surprising to the upside. New worries are emerging, such as the trajectory of disinflation, and the pace and timing of rate cuts. In this environment, it is important to build a resilient all-weather portfolio, which protects against a correction, rising rates, or stubborn inflation but also has exposure to the AI theme.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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