According to our latest client poll, most respondents are optimistic about the Generative AI's potential. Investors remain divided on whether current equity valuations reflect a bubble. Economic concerns continue to center on bond…
Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.
August retail sales beat expectations, but resilience in consumption does not alter a defensive stance as labor momentum weakens. Headline sales rose 0.6% m/m, unchanged from July, while core ex-autos and gas accelerated to 0.7% from…
US consumer sentiment deteriorated in September, reinforcing signs of slowing consumption and supporting a defensive stance. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped more than expected to 55.4 from 58.2…
BCA clients are divided on whether the US economy is heading into a recession, but lean towards the view that it will be avoided. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, 43% of respondents answered…
From Treasurys to tokenization, stablecoins are quietly becoming one of the most disruptive forces in global finance, with the power to compress yields, deepen dollar penetration, and shift the balance within crypto markets. Explore…
August US CPI was in line with expectations, reinforcing the case for Fed easing and a long-duration stance. Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), while core held at 0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y). Core goods inflation ticked up to 1.5% y/y…
High US inflation is being driven by tariffs, not domestic inflationary pressure. This argues for Fed easing and a bull-steepening of the Treasury curve.
August PPI inflation cooled, reinforcing the case for Fed easing and long duration with steepeners. Headline PPI fell 0.1% m/m, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6% after July’s 0.7% gain. Core PPI (ex-food, energy, and trade)…