Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

United States

f_image_20240131_170458.PNG
US DoD Industrial Policy: 1940 Redux

The US DoD rolled out its first-ever industrial policy designed to reverse decades of atrophy in its military-industrial complex. This left the US with diminished access to CMM commodities and supply chains, which are now dominated by China, and an industrial ecosystem to support its war-fighting mission that risks become uncompetitive. We remain long the XME and COMT ETFs to retain exposure to CMM producers and refiners. At tonight’s close, we will get long the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA), anticipating increased defense spending.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
f_image_20240131_213706.PNG
MacroQuant Model Update: The Party Is Winding Down

Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Decelerating ECI Consistent With Easing Price Pressures
The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 delivered a positive signal that the disinflation process is intact. The ECI’s slowdown from 1.1% q/q to 0.9% q/q came in softer than anticipations of 1.0% q/q. This marks the slowest pace of quarterly increase since 2021Q2…
Daily Insights
Powell Pushes Back Against March Rate Cut
As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary policy. Specifically, the…
Daily Insights
Tight Credit Spreads Offer Inadequate Protection
The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service argue that credit…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240131_113841.PNG
The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise In December
The December JOLTS survey delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday. Job openings rose from an upwardly revised 8.93 million in November to a three month high of 9.03 million in December, beating expectations of 8.75 million. In addition, the hiring rate…
Daily Insights
US Cyclicals Versus Defensives Following The Fed’s First Rate Cut
Investors are likely to pay close attention to the Fed’s communication on Wednesday for clues about the likely timing of the first rate cut. For now, markets are assigning slightly higher odds to the central bank standing pat in March – a change from a month…
Daily Insights
Can Cyclicals' Outperformance Persist?
Since the low of 27 October last year, MSCI US has rallied by 19.1% and this rally has been firmly driven by cyclical sectors. Performance-wise Information Technology (IT), Communication Services and Financials and Real Estate have been the top performing…
Daily Insights
Dallas Fed Survey Corroborates Pessimistic Signal From Other Regional Fed Banks
Results of regional Fed surveys suggest that the US manufacturing sector is starting the year on a weak footing. Monday’s report from the Dallas Fed– the last to release its results for January – showed the headline manufacturing activity index collapse from…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Australia Canada Europe Japan New Zealand