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United States

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The Primary Election Is Over

The US primary election is effectively over. The Biden-Trump rematch – our base case since 2022 – is all but set in stone. Only a health issue or freak incident could change that now.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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Five Black Swans For 2024

Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly improbable, but they stem from these underlying trends.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Flash PMIs Contradict Signal From Regional Fed Surveys
Flash PMIs sent a generally positive update on economic activity across major DM economies in January – particularly in the case of manufacturing. In the US, the composite index rose to a 7-month high of 52.3, beating expectations it would remain broadly…
Daily Insights
The Greenback Is Enjoying A Good Start To The Year
The US dollar has started the year on a strong note with the DXY gaining 2.6% since it bottomed on December 27. Multiple forces are behind this appreciation. Investors have been scaling back their expectations of Fed rate hikes this year. A March rate cut is…
Daily Insights
A Red Flag From Global Cyclical Assets
The S&P 500 notched a fresh record high on Tuesday for the third session in a row, bringing its year-to-date gains to 2.0%. Yet as we highlighted in a recent Insight, the lack of a broad-based rally across all S&P 500 sectors raises some concerns…
Daily Insights
US Labor Market Indicators Are Pointing To A Hard Landing
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, labor demand can fall even in a full-employment economy. Investors often focus on the unemployment rate as a gauge of how strong the labor market is. The unemployment rate is a valuable…
Daily Insights
Should Investors Ignore The LEI's Recession Signal?
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) sent a mixed signal on Monday. On the one hand, the LEI posted its 22nd consecutive month-over-month decline in December – a negative   sign for the economic outlook. On the other hand, the…
Daily Insights
M7 Are Making Outsized Earnings Growth Contributions
With US equity indices forging new highs, a key dynamic to watch to gauge the sustainability of the rally is earnings releases and forward guidance. With 52 S&P 500 companies having already reported their results, the Q4 blended earnings growth…
Daily Insights
The Soft-Landing Debate: What US Banks See
The SIFI banks (BAC, C, JPM and WFC) kicked off the fourth-quarter US reporting season on January 12th. As usual, our US Investment Strategists studied the SIFI’s earnings calls looking for macroeconomic insights from borrower performance, lender willingness,…
Daily Insights
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The Big Bank Beige Book, January 2024

The SIFI banks expressed confidence in their credit outlook for 2024 and expect that credit losses will crest soon, given the reserves they’ve already set aside. Their implicit embrace of the soft-landing narrative suggests to us that the consensus is getting closer to being set up for disappointment. We remain tactically equal weight equities and fixed income but think conditions may soon favor turning defensive.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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