United States
Favor Value over Quality and non-US equities as leadership broadens and late-cycle rotations gather pace. Global equities rose 21% in 2025, but leadership shifted meaningfully. The US finished in the bottom third of regional returns, while markets such as…
Our GeoMacro strategists turned tactically bearish on equities as the US 10-year Treasury yield remains stuck above 4%, reaffirming their mid-2025 view that elevated borrowing costs would pressure the economy. While they are open to a reversal in the…
The US removal of Venezuela's Maduro does not presage an invasion of Greenland. But it does justify a lingering risk of conflict with Iran.
Stay overweight duration and favor curve steepeners as sluggish growth will allow the Fed to cut more than priced. The December ISM Manufacturing index missed estimates, falling to 47.9 from 48.2 and marking a tenth consecutive month in contraction. The…
Remain neutral on equities; strong Q3 growth hinged on consumer resilience that leading indicators suggest will fade. US Q3 GDP beat estimates, accelerating to a 4.3% annualized pace from 3.8% in Q2, the fastest in two years. Consumption was the main driver,…
Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.
Investors expect more than one cut from the Fed in 2026. In this week’s poll, clients clearly answered that they expect the Fed to ease by more than the December dots suggest. Across the BCA website, LinkedIn and X, more than 70% of respondents answered that…
Markets rarely follow the playbook, and neither do the people best trained to handle chaos. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist. Each year, the GAA team curates a holiday reading list for investors. This…
Our FX strategists view the dollar as increasingly vulnerable in 2026, with structural headwinds building and cyclical supports fading. A multi-year downtrend is becoming more likely unless the US can sustain economic and equity outperformance without…
Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026.