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The Immaculate Disinflation Of 2023, Explained

Our kinked Phillips curve framework predicted the immaculate disinflation of 2023. That same framework is now warning that the global economy is heading towards a recession in the second half of 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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The Interplay Between Inventory Cycles And Markets

Contrary to the prevalent belief in the global investment community, goods/merchandise inventories in the US and East Asia are rather elevated. Financial markets respond to final demand fluctuations, not inventory restocking. Global manufacturing/trade will continue contracting, even though the pace of contraction might moderate in the near run. We recommend that investors fade the current rally.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Ziyuan Huang, Arthur Budaghyan
US Durable Goods Orders Disappoint
US durable goods orders delivered a negative surprise on Wednesday. New orders for manufactured durable goods dropped by 5.4% m/m in October, below consensus estimates of a 3.2% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised down slightly to 4.0%…
Daily Insights
The 2023 Global Equity Rally Extends Beyond The Magnificent Seven
Global equities have had a stellar 2023, rising by 16% year-to-date and outperforming global bonds by roughly the same amount. However, the large concentration of US stocks in the Magnificent Seven has called into question the legitimacy of this rally. There…
Daily Insights
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The US Labor Market Is Slowing, But Is It Signaling Recession?

We investigate the recent increase in unemployment with the goal of determining whether it is flagging an imminent US recession.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Proceeding Carefully
The minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting revealed that there is a consensus among policymakers to proceed carefully. Another rate increase is appropriate only if "incoming inflation indicated that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective was…
Daily Insights
Pricing Power Is Fading But There Are A Few Holdouts
Inflation has been in a downtrend for a few months now, which has translated into fading corporate pricing power. With wage growth still strong, and the cost of energy on the rise, the degree of companies’ pricing power differentiates their ability to protect…
Daily Insights
Mid-Caps Are More Financially Stable Than Small-Caps
According to BCA Research's US Equity Strategy service, mid-caps underperform when spreads widen, although less so than Small as they are more financially robust and have better credit ratings. Small is the most leveraged relative to income (EBITDA) and…
Daily Insights
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Mid-caps: The Best Of Both Worlds

Mid-caps are the best of both worlds and are an excellent strategic overweight thanks to their size premium, but also better financial quality and higher dividend yield than Small. We are bullish on Mid near term and believe that this may be a great trade. We will initiate a position in the S&P 400 as a tactical overweight but will monitor it very closely.

Equity Analyzer by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
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The Midwest: The Pivot Of US History

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri

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